Wyoming · No. 108 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Wyoming ranks No. 108 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -8.17 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 114; this update moves it +6 places and +0.56 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 4–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -1.045. Prior-season margin: -2.383.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0009; EPA/play net: -0.0908; success-rate net: +0.0050; explosiveness net: -0.3318. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 3 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Wyoming beat Northern Illinois by 18 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +11.54; the result was +6.46 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Air Force on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 510 versus 392; Net passing yards: 196 versus 216; Rushing yards: 314 versus 176; First downs: 25 versus 21

Completions–attempts: 16-19 versus 24-44; Rush attempts: 41 versus 29; Yards per pass: 10.3 versus 4.9; Yards per rush: 7.7 versus 6.1

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 23 points and recorded 392 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 5 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 6 versus 2; Third downs: 5-9 versus 4-14; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 2-3

Turnovers: 0 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 3-23 versus 8-90; Possession time: 30:05 versus 29:55

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 4–3. The expected final record is 5.9–6.1 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 107 San José State (-7.98); No. 109 South Alabama (-8.56).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.