Wyoming · Week 1 analysis

Where the team stands

Wyoming ranks No. 91 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -4.08 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 105; this update moves it +14 places and +4.07 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 1 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 0–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +0.708. Prior-season margin: -2.383.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0335; EPA/play net: +0.0295; success-rate net: +0.0285; explosiveness net: -0.0634. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Wyoming lost to Colorado State by 22 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +0.44; the result was -22.44 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Northern Colorado on 2026-09-12. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 273 versus 396; Net passing yards: 130 versus 242; Rushing yards: 143 versus 154; First downs: 17 versus 18

Completions–attempts: 12-19 versus 24-34; Rush attempts: 34 versus 33; Yards per pass: 6.8 versus 7.1; Yards per rush: 4.2 versus 4.7

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 35 points and recorded 396 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 6; Third downs: 0-8 versus 7-15; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 2-2

Turnovers: 4 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 3 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 6-47 versus 4-36; Possession time: 30:41 versus 29:19

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 0–1. The expected final record is 6.0–6.0 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 90 Michigan State (-3.74); No. 92 Syracuse (-4.11).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.