Wyoming · Week 6 analysis

Where the team stands

Wyoming ranks No. 114 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -8.73 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 120; this update moves it +6 places and +1.79 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 3–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -0.710. Prior-season margin: -2.383.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0064; EPA/play net: -0.0649; success-rate net: -0.0102; explosiveness net: -0.2214. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Wyoming beat San José State by 3 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -5.83; the result was +8.83 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Northern Illinois on 2026-10-17. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 345 versus 326; Net passing yards: 114 versus 251; Rushing yards: 231 versus 75; First downs: 21 versus 20

Completions–attempts: 16-24 versus 26-38; Rush attempts: 53 versus 28; Yards per pass: 4.8 versus 6.6; Yards per rush: 4.4 versus 2.7

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 13 points and recorded 326 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 4 versus 6; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 9; Third downs: 3-15 versus 4-12; Fourth downs: 5-6 versus 1-2

Turnovers: 2 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 6-60 versus 3-15; Possession time: 37:42 versus 22:18

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 3–3. The expected final record is 5.6–6.4 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 113 San José State (-8.61); No. 115 Marshall (-8.75).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.