Wyoming · Week 3 analysis

Where the team stands

Wyoming ranks No. 106 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -5.82 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 104; this update moves it -2 places and +0.79 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -0.901. Prior-season margin: -2.383.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0078; EPA/play net: +0.0093; success-rate net: +0.0214; explosiveness net: -0.0761. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Wyoming lost to Central Michigan by 14 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +2.02; the result was -16.02 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Hawai'i on 2026-09-26. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 342 versus 371; Net passing yards: 180 versus 32; Rushing yards: 162 versus 339; First downs: 17 versus 20

Completions–attempts: 15-31 versus 4-7; Rush attempts: 28 versus 59; Yards per pass: 5.8 versus 4.6; Yards per rush: 5.8 versus 5.7

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 24 points and recorded 371 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 2 versus 1; Third downs: 6-13 versus 5-13; Fourth downs: 1-2 versus 3-3

Turnovers: 2 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 2 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 4-40 versus 3-40; Possession time: 24:12 versus 35:48

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–2. The expected final record is 5.2–6.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 105 Louisiana (-5.67); No. 107 Akron (-6.00).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.