Wyoming · Week 2 analysis

Where the team stands

Wyoming ranks No. 104 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -6.61 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 91; this update moves it -13 places and -2.53 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 2 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -1.182. Prior-season margin: -2.383.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0067; EPA/play net: +0.0218; success-rate net: +0.0239; explosiveness net: -0.0705. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Wyoming beat Northern Colorado by 8 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +20.59; the result was -12.59 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Central Michigan on 2026-09-19. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 304 versus 345; Net passing yards: 149 versus 206; Rushing yards: 155 versus 139; First downs: 16 versus 17

Completions–attempts: 18-26 versus 14-26; Rush attempts: 34 versus 36; Yards per pass: 5.7 versus 7.9; Yards per rush: 4.6 versus 3.9

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 13 points and recorded 345 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 3 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 5; Third downs: 5-12 versus 4-12; Fourth downs: 1-1 versus 0-2

Turnovers: 2 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 2 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 7-60 versus 8-61; Possession time: 28:53 versus 31:07

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–1. The expected final record is 5.7–6.3 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 103 Texas State (-6.45); No. 105 Syracuse (-6.69).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.