Sam Houston · No. 126 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Sam Houston ranks No. 126 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -12.50 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 124; this update moves it -2 places and -1.15 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–5. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -1.601. Prior-season margin: -14.148.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0152; EPA/play net: -0.0165; success-rate net: +0.0243; explosiveness net: -0.1305. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 5 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Sam Houston lost to Western Kentucky by 13 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -1.48; the result was -11.52 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is New Mexico State on 2026-10-22. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 177 versus 276; Net passing yards: 112 versus 132; Rushing yards: 65 versus 144; First downs: 12 versus 17

Completions–attempts: 13-30 versus 15-31; Rush attempts: 27 versus 43; Yards per pass: 3.7 versus 4.3; Yards per rush: 2.4 versus 3.3

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 16 points and recorded 276 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 6 versus 7; Third downs: 2-13 versus 8-20; Fourth downs: 0-0 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 1 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 9-100 versus 4-33; Possession time: 27:37 versus 32:23

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–5. The expected final record is 3.1–8.9 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 125 Akron (-12.44); No. 127 Rice (-13.22).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.