Sam Houston · Week 3 analysis

Where the team stands

Sam Houston ranks No. 110 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -7.24 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 131; this update moves it +21 places and +5.58 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +2.203. Prior-season margin: -14.148.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0185; EPA/play net: +0.0633; success-rate net: +0.0708; explosiveness net: -0.1271. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 3 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Sam Houston beat Nicholls by 59 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +22.04; the result was +36.96 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Texas Tech on 2026-09-26. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 619 versus 163; Net passing yards: 386 versus 39; Rushing yards: 233 versus 124; First downs: 26 versus 10

Completions–attempts: 22-32 versus 7-23; Rush attempts: 43 versus 36; Yards per pass: 12.1 versus 1.7; Yards per rush: 5.4 versus 3.4

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 0 points and recorded 163 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 6 versus 1; Third downs: 10-17 versus 1-15; Fourth downs: 0-0 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 0 versus 3; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 8-70 versus 7-66; Possession time: 35:31 versus 24:29

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–2. The expected final record is 4.8–7.2 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 109 Oregon State (-6.81); No. 111 Texas State (-7.40).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.