Sam Houston · Week 6 analysis

Where the team stands

Sam Houston ranks No. 124 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -11.35 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 117; this update moves it -7 places and -1.14 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 5 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–4. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +0.407. Prior-season margin: -14.148.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0093; EPA/play net: +0.0616; success-rate net: +0.0446; explosiveness net: -0.1404. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Sam Houston lost to Liberty by 32 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -16.47; the result was -15.53 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Western Kentucky on 2026-10-15. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 243 versus 411; Net passing yards: 138 versus 114; Rushing yards: 105 versus 297; First downs: 13 versus 22

Completions–attempts: 20-30 versus 10-14; Rush attempts: 29 versus 39; Yards per pass: 4.6 versus 8.1; Yards per rush: 3.6 versus 7.6

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 35 points and recorded 411 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 3 versus 9; Third downs: 4-13 versus 4-7; Fourth downs: 0-3 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 0 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 9-68 versus 15-117; Possession time: 29:04 versus 30:56

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–4. The expected final record is 3.8–8.2 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 123 Middle Tennessee (-11.26); No. 125 Sacramento State (-11.36).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.