Sam Houston · Week 4 analysis

Where the team stands

Sam Houston ranks No. 121 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -9.82 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 110; this update moves it -11 places and -2.59 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 4 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +1.150. Prior-season margin: -14.148.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0070; EPA/play net: +0.0538; success-rate net: +0.0453; explosiveness net: -0.1388. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Sam Houston lost to Texas Tech by 35 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -22.80; the result was -12.20 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Liberty on 2026-10-08. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 269 versus 470; Net passing yards: 195 versus 251; Rushing yards: 74 versus 219; First downs: 11 versus 24

Completions–attempts: 23-38 versus 18-31; Rush attempts: 27 versus 35; Yards per pass: 5.1 versus 8.1; Yards per rush: 2.7 versus 6.3

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 49 points and recorded 470 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 9; Third downs: 5-16 versus 4-9; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 1-1

Turnovers: 3 versus 4; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 3 versus 3; Penalties–yards: 7-55 versus 6-47; Possession time: 35:06 versus 24:54

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–3. The expected final record is 4.2–7.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 120 Akron (-9.76); No. 122 Nevada (-10.27).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.