Sam Houston · Week 1 analysis

Where the team stands

Sam Houston ranks No. 128 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -12.10 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 137; this update moves it +9 places and +7.72 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 1 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 0–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +2.608. Prior-season margin: -14.148.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0314; EPA/play net: +0.1003; success-rate net: +0.0639; explosiveness net: -0.1009. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Sam Houston lost to Troy by 3 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -17.85; the result was +14.85 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Tulsa on 2026-09-12. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 373 versus 342; Net passing yards: 335 versus 165; Rushing yards: 38 versus 177; First downs: 22 versus 18

Completions–attempts: 30-46 versus 12-24; Rush attempts: 24 versus 42; Yards per pass: 7.3 versus 6.9; Yards per rush: 1.6 versus 4.2

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 24 points and recorded 342 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 4 versus 4; Tackles for loss: 8 versus 13; Third downs: 6-14 versus 6-15; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 1 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 6-35 versus 6-55; Possession time: 30:51 versus 29:09

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 0–1. The expected final record is 4.2–7.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 127 Buffalo (-11.82); No. 129 Middle Tennessee (-12.67).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.