Hawai'i · No. 120 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Hawai'i ranks No. 120 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -10.92 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 120; this update moves it +0 places and +0.05 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–6. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -5.011. Prior-season margin: +3.450.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0155; EPA/play net: -0.1013; success-rate net: -0.0314; explosiveness net: -0.1500. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 3 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Hawai'i lost to New Mexico by 11 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -16.46; the result was +5.46 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Northern Illinois on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 298 versus 337; Net passing yards: 250 versus 94; Rushing yards: 48 versus 243; First downs: 20 versus 16

Completions–attempts: 23-40 versus 6-11; Rush attempts: 27 versus 48; Yards per pass: 6.3 versus 8.5; Yards per rush: 1.8 versus 5.1

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 21 points and recorded 337 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 3 versus 11; Third downs: 3-13 versus 5-13; Fourth downs: 0-0 versus 3-3

Turnovers: 2 versus 3; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 7-80 versus 16-145; Possession time: 28:04 versus 31:56

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–6. The expected final record is 3.5–8.5 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 119 Delaware (-10.86); No. 121 Missouri State (-11.47).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.