Hawai'i · Week 2 analysis

Where the team stands

Hawai'i ranks No. 120 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -9.37 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 107; this update moves it -13 places and -2.80 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -4.100. Prior-season margin: +3.450.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0419; EPA/play net: -0.0740; success-rate net: -0.0384; explosiveness net: -0.0111. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Hawai'i beat New Mexico State by 10 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +2.70; the result was +7.30 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Wyoming on 2026-09-26. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 420 versus 380; Net passing yards: 353 versus 256; Rushing yards: 67 versus 124; First downs: 21 versus 23

Completions–attempts: 34-46 versus 19-35; Rush attempts: 26 versus 31; Yards per pass: 7.7 versus 7.3; Yards per rush: 2.6 versus 4.0

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 19 points and recorded 380 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 7; Third downs: 5-15 versus 4-10; Fourth downs: 1-1 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 1 versus 3; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 4-37 versus 5-40; Possession time: 32:13 versus 27:47

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–2. The expected final record is 4.7–7.3 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 119 Buffalo (-8.83); No. 121 Oklahoma State (-9.53).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.