Hawai'i · Week 5 analysis

Where the team stands

Hawai'i ranks No. 123 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -10.98 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 114; this update moves it -9 places and -1.95 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 5 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–4. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -4.625. Prior-season margin: +3.450.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0272; EPA/play net: -0.1080; success-rate net: -0.0334; explosiveness net: -0.1368. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Hawai'i lost to San José State by 4 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +3.64; the result was -7.64 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Arizona State on 2026-10-11. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 438 versus 324; Net passing yards: 341 versus 246; Rushing yards: 97 versus 78; First downs: 18 versus 16

Completions–attempts: 23-38 versus 19-28; Rush attempts: 25 versus 34; Yards per pass: 9.0 versus 8.8; Yards per rush: 3.9 versus 2.3

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 20 points and recorded 324 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 5; Third downs: 4-13 versus 4-15; Fourth downs: 0-2 versus 2-2

Turnovers: 2 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 2 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 12-85 versus 6-65; Possession time: 30:01 versus 29:59

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–4. The expected final record is 3.7–8.3 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 122 Delaware (-10.91); No. 124 Rice (-11.65).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.