Hawai'i · Week 4 analysis

Where the team stands

Hawai'i ranks No. 114 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -9.03 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 121; this update moves it +7 places and +0.55 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 4 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -3.179. Prior-season margin: +3.450.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0253; EPA/play net: -0.0454; success-rate net: -0.0311; explosiveness net: +0.0042. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Hawai'i lost to Wyoming by 17 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -6.71; the result was -10.29 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is San José State on 2026-10-04. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 328 versus 387; Net passing yards: 226 versus 204; Rushing yards: 102 versus 183; First downs: 22 versus 23

Completions–attempts: 28-44 versus 17-23; Rush attempts: 23 versus 38; Yards per pass: 5.1 versus 8.9; Yards per rush: 4.4 versus 4.8

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 27 points and recorded 387 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 3 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 5; Third downs: 5-14 versus 6-12; Fourth downs: 2-4 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 0 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 8-60 versus 6-47; Possession time: 27:57 versus 32:03

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–3. The expected final record is 4.5–7.5 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 113 Marshall (-8.99); No. 115 Massachusetts (-9.21).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.