Delaware · No. 119 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Delaware ranks No. 119 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -10.86 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 122; this update moves it +3 places and +0.30 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–4. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -1.709. Prior-season margin: -3.543.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0082; EPA/play net: -0.2174; success-rate net: -0.0569; explosiveness net: -0.3037. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Delaware lost to Middle Tennessee by 3 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -2.82; the result was -0.18 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Missouri State on 2026-10-20. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 391 versus 396; Net passing yards: 321 versus 291; Rushing yards: 70 versus 105; First downs: 22 versus 22

Completions–attempts: 23-37 versus 22-33; Rush attempts: 30 versus 25; Yards per pass: 8.7 versus 8.8; Yards per rush: 2.3 versus 4.2

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 33 points and recorded 396 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 5; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 5; Third downs: 5-12 versus 2-9; Fourth downs: 0-0 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 1 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 13-101 versus 5-45; Possession time: 32:15 versus 27:45

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–4. The expected final record is 4.2–7.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 118 Coastal Carolina (-10.57); No. 120 Hawai'i (-10.92).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.