Delaware · Week 3 analysis

Where the team stands

Delaware ranks No. 88 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -3.68 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 77; this update moves it -11 places and -1.22 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +1.179. Prior-season margin: -3.543.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0244; EPA/play net: +0.0000; success-rate net: +0.0000; explosiveness net: +0.0000. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 0 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Delaware beat Coastal Carolina by 8 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +6.04; the result was +1.96 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Virginia on 2026-09-26. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 395 versus 385; Net passing yards: 302 versus 250; Rushing yards: 93 versus 135; First downs: 22 versus 21

Completions–attempts: 24-32 versus 16-26; Rush attempts: 31 versus 35; Yards per pass: 9.4 versus 9.6; Yards per rush: 3.0 versus 3.9

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 14 points and recorded 385 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 4 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 6 versus 4; Third downs: 5-12 versus 6-12; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 0 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 2; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 3-35 versus 5-30; Possession time: 32:08 versus 27:52

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–1. The expected final record is 6.6–5.4 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 87 Tulsa (-3.50); No. 89 Arkansas (-3.73).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.