Delaware · Week 2 analysis

Where the team stands

Delaware ranks No. 77 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -2.46 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 105; this update moves it +28 places and +3.61 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 2 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +2.326. Prior-season margin: -3.543.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0339; EPA/play net: +0.0000; success-rate net: +0.0000; explosiveness net: +0.0000. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 0 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Delaware lost to Vanderbilt by 9 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -18.12; the result was +9.12 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Coastal Carolina on 2026-09-19. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 338 versus 339; Net passing yards: 240 versus 239; Rushing yards: 98 versus 100; First downs: 18 versus 17

Completions–attempts: 15-32 versus 17-31; Rush attempts: 36 versus 38; Yards per pass: 7.5 versus 7.7; Yards per rush: 2.7 versus 2.6

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 35 points and recorded 339 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 3 versus 6; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 11; Third downs: 3-15 versus 5-15; Fourth downs: 2-2 versus 2-4

Turnovers: 2 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 2 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 3-18 versus 6-36; Possession time: 31:20 versus 28:40

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–1. The expected final record is 6.3–5.7 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 76 Florida State (-1.87); No. 78 Cincinnati (-2.53).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.