Delaware · Week 5 analysis

Where the team stands

Delaware ranks No. 122 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -10.91 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 103; this update moves it -19 places and -4.46 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 5 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -2.306. Prior-season margin: -3.543.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0069; EPA/play net: -0.2192; success-rate net: -0.0589; explosiveness net: -0.2896. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Delaware lost to Liberty by 16 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -4.29; the result was -11.71 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Middle Tennessee on 2026-10-13. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 359 versus 439; Net passing yards: 257 versus 157; Rushing yards: 102 versus 282; First downs: 16 versus 23

Completions–attempts: 17-35 versus 13-25; Rush attempts: 25 versus 47; Yards per pass: 7.3 versus 6.3; Yards per rush: 4.1 versus 6.0

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 30 points and recorded 439 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 5; Third downs: 2-13 versus 6-16; Fourth downs: 1-4 versus 1-2

Turnovers: 2 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 5-50 versus 9-105; Possession time: 21:28 versus 38:32

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–3. The expected final record is 4.7–7.3 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 121 Nevada (-10.61); No. 123 Hawai'i (-10.98).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.