San Diego State · No. 110 · Week 7 analysis
2026 · AFTER WEEK 7
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Where the team stands
San Diego State ranks No. 110 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -8.88 points against the average FBS opponent.
The previous snapshot ranked it No. 110; this update moves it +0 places and -0.81 rating points.
The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 3–4. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.
What enters this model
Opponent-adjusted current margin: -3.678. Prior-season margin: +11.003.
Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0233; EPA/play net: -0.0441; success-rate net: -0.0590; explosiveness net: +0.0651. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.
EP inputs cover 5 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.
The result and the reconstructed expectation
San Diego State beat Fresno State by 3 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -7.52; the result was +10.52 points relative to that expectation.
This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.
Next scheduled test
The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Colorado State on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.
Offense: production and workload
Total yards: 384 versus 276; Net passing yards: 180 versus 141; Rushing yards: 204 versus 135; First downs: 17 versus 18
Completions–attempts: 14-22 versus 13-25; Rush attempts: 40 versus 40; Yards per pass: 8.2 versus 5.6; Yards per rush: 5.1 versus 3.4
Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.
Defense and possession
The opponent scored 23 points and recorded 276 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.
Recorded sacks: 6 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 7; Third downs: 6-14 versus 4-13; Fourth downs: 0-0 versus 1-2
Turnovers: 1 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 5-35 versus 3-25; Possession time: 28:26 versus 31:34
The season outlook at this snapshot
The recorded regular-season record is 3–4. The expected final record is 4.6–6.4 over 11 scheduled games.
Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.
The comparison around the ranking
Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 109 South Alabama (-8.56); No. 111 Marshall (-9.19).
PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.
How to read this assessment
This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.
Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.