San Diego State · Week 6 analysis

Where the team stands

San Diego State ranks No. 110 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -8.07 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 94; this update moves it -16 places and -3.54 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–4. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -3.648. Prior-season margin: +11.003.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0210; EPA/play net: -0.0683; success-rate net: -0.0610; explosiveness net: +0.0297. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

San Diego State lost to Oregon State by 52 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -10.58; the result was -41.42 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Fresno State on 2026-10-18. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 147 versus 651; Net passing yards: 91 versus 462; Rushing yards: 56 versus 189; First downs: 6 versus 35

Completions–attempts: 9-27 versus 37-47; Rush attempts: 21 versus 45; Yards per pass: 3.4 versus 9.8; Yards per rush: 2.7 versus 4.2

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 66 points and recorded 651 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 3; Third downs: 2-13 versus 12-17; Fourth downs: 0-2 versus 2-3

Turnovers: 1 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 5-45 versus 3-25; Possession time: 17:42 versus 42:18

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–4. The expected final record is 4.0–7.0 over 11 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 109 Southern Miss (-7.80); No. 111 Rutgers (-8.15).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.