San Diego State · Week 5 analysis

Where the team stands

San Diego State ranks No. 94 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -4.53 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 76; this update moves it -18 places and -2.80 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 5 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -1.658. Prior-season margin: +11.003.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0049; EPA/play net: -0.0481; success-rate net: -0.0572; explosiveness net: +0.0598. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

San Diego State beat Texas State by 2 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +5.18; the result was -3.18 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Oregon State on 2026-10-10. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 239 versus 565; Net passing yards: 109 versus 372; Rushing yards: 130 versus 193; First downs: 13 versus 34

Completions–attempts: 15-23 versus 27-44; Rush attempts: 29 versus 58; Yards per pass: 4.7 versus 8.5; Yards per rush: 4.5 versus 3.3

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 29 points and recorded 565 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 3 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 9 versus 3; Third downs: 1-10 versus 8-19; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 2-5

Turnovers: 0 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 7-59 versus 8-51; Possession time: 19:27 versus 40:33

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–3. The expected final record is 4.6–6.4 over 11 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 93 Minnesota (-4.03); No. 95 Troy (-4.91).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.