Temple · Week 4 analysis

Where the team stands

Temple ranks No. 107 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -7.13 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 100; this update moves it -7 places and -2.13 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 4 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -2.089. Prior-season margin: +1.229.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0303; EPA/play net: -0.1853; success-rate net: -0.0433; explosiveness net: -0.0187. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Temple lost to Army by 4 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -1.77; the result was -2.23 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is South Florida on 2026-10-03. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 459 versus 315; Net passing yards: 242 versus 36; Rushing yards: 217 versus 279; First downs: 17 versus 22

Completions–attempts: 11-20 versus 3-6; Rush attempts: 32 versus 57; Yards per pass: 12.1 versus 6.0; Yards per rush: 6.8 versus 4.9

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 21 points and recorded 315 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 1 versus 2; Third downs: 3-9 versus 6-12; Fourth downs: 0-2 versus 2-2

Turnovers: 0 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 6-37 versus 4-40; Possession time: 21:59 versus 38:01

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–3. The expected final record is 4.2–7.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 106 Wyoming (-7.12); No. 108 Florida Atlantic (-7.29).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.