Temple · No. 115 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Temple ranks No. 115 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -10.17 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 106; this update moves it -9 places and -3.04 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–5. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -2.906. Prior-season margin: +1.229.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0270; EPA/play net: -0.2593; success-rate net: -0.0732; explosiveness net: -0.0839. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Temple lost to Charlotte by 7 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +19.14; the result was -26.14 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is East Carolina on 2026-10-31. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 455 versus 449; Net passing yards: 249 versus 281; Rushing yards: 206 versus 168; First downs: 20 versus 26

Completions–attempts: 17-27 versus 23-31; Rush attempts: 34 versus 38; Yards per pass: 9.2 versus 9.1; Yards per rush: 6.1 versus 4.4

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 38 points and recorded 449 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 6; Third downs: 6-12 versus 6-10; Fourth downs: 0-2 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 0 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 5-65 versus 3-11; Possession time: 27:11 versus 32:49

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–5. The expected final record is 3.6–8.4 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 114 West Virginia (-10.01); No. 116 California (-10.31).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.