Rice · Week 6 analysis

Where the team stands

Rice ranks No. 119 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -10.86 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 124; this update moves it +5 places and +0.79 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–5. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -3.288. Prior-season margin: -9.448.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0125; EPA/play net: -0.0277; success-rate net: +0.0259; explosiveness net: -0.0600. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 5 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Rice lost to East Carolina by 16 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -18.98; the result was +2.98 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Tulsa on 2026-10-17. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 233 versus 376; Net passing yards: 69 versus 142; Rushing yards: 164 versus 234; First downs: 13 versus 19

Completions–attempts: 4-14 versus 21-34; Rush attempts: 51 versus 41; Yards per pass: 4.9 versus 4.2; Yards per rush: 3.2 versus 5.7

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 28 points and recorded 376 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 9 versus 12; Third downs: 3-15 versus 5-16; Fourth downs: 1-2 versus 2-5

Turnovers: 2 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 6-45 versus 3-15; Possession time: 29:45 versus 30:15

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–5. The expected final record is 2.8–9.2 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 118 UAB (-9.76); No. 120 Hawai'i (-10.96).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.