Rice · No. 127 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Rice ranks No. 127 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -13.22 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 119; this update moves it -8 places and -2.36 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–6. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -5.044. Prior-season margin: -9.448.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0208; EPA/play net: -0.0860; success-rate net: +0.0123; explosiveness net: -0.1255. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 6 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Rice lost to Tulsa by 21 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -1.64; the result was -19.36 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Florida Atlantic on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 351 versus 401; Net passing yards: 62 versus 249; Rushing yards: 289 versus 152; First downs: 19 versus 22

Completions–attempts: 4-8 versus 20-27; Rush attempts: 54 versus 36; Yards per pass: 7.8 versus 9.2; Yards per rush: 5.4 versus 4.2

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 38 points and recorded 401 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 4; Third downs: 4-11 versus 6-11; Fourth downs: 1-3 versus 1-2

Turnovers: 1 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 7-75 versus 6-63; Possession time: 29:32 versus 30:28

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–6. The expected final record is 2.3–9.7 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 126 Sam Houston (-12.50); No. 128 Ball State (-13.54).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.