Wisconsin · Week 3 analysis

Where the team stands

Wisconsin ranks No. 91 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -3.95 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 95; this update moves it +4 places and +1.22 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -0.175. Prior-season margin: +4.814.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0070; EPA/play net: +0.0210; success-rate net: -0.0269; explosiveness net: +0.1113. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Wisconsin beat Eastern Michigan by 44 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +10.59; the result was +33.41 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Penn State on 2026-09-26. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 479 versus 216; Net passing yards: 362 versus 154; Rushing yards: 117 versus 62; First downs: 23 versus 15

Completions–attempts: 23-33 versus 18-30; Rush attempts: 30 versus 30; Yards per pass: 11.0 versus 5.1; Yards per rush: 3.9 versus 2.1

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 10 points and recorded 216 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 1; Third downs: 8-12 versus 3-12; Fourth downs: 1-2 versus 2-2

Turnovers: 1 versus 3; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 6-55 versus 4-38; Possession time: 31:17 versus 28:43

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–1. The expected final record is 5.2–6.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 90 California (-3.77); No. 92 Georgia Tech (-3.97).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.