Washington State · Week 2 analysis

Where the team stands

Washington State ranks No. 55 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +2.47 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 35; this update moves it -20 places and -2.55 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 2 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 0–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +0.893. Prior-season margin: +9.345.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0171; EPA/play net: -0.0275; success-rate net: -0.0216; explosiveness net: +0.0128. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Washington State lost to Kansas State by 27 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -6.25; the result was -20.75 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Duquesne on 2026-09-19. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 166 versus 487; Net passing yards: 65 versus 192; Rushing yards: 101 versus 295; First downs: 10 versus 24

Completions–attempts: 9-20 versus 22-34; Rush attempts: 30 versus 40; Yards per pass: 3.3 versus 5.6; Yards per rush: 3.4 versus 7.4

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 34 points and recorded 487 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 4; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 8; Third downs: 2-12 versus 10-16; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 1 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 3-25 versus 2-25; Possession time: 25:40 versus 34:20

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 0–2. The expected final record is 5.8–5.2 over 11 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 54 Duke (+2.62); No. 56 UCLA (+2.27).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.