UTSA · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

UTSA ranks No. 67 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +0.35 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 59; this update moves it -8 places and -1.56 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 6–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +1.793. Prior-season margin: +9.634.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0105; EPA/play net: -0.0533; success-rate net: +0.0236; explosiveness net: -0.2140. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

UTSA beat Navy by 4 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +0.77; the result was +3.23 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Tulane on 2026-10-25. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 469 versus 477; Net passing yards: 359 versus 183; Rushing yards: 110 versus 294; First downs: 22 versus 17

Completions–attempts: 28-38 versus 4-8; Rush attempts: 32 versus 48; Yards per pass: 9.4 versus 22.9; Yards per rush: 3.4 versus 6.1

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 34 points and recorded 477 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 8; Third downs: 5-14 versus 4-9; Fourth downs: 2-3 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 0 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 7-60 versus 10-71; Possession time: 31:45 versus 28:15

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 6–1. The expected final record is 8.8–3.2 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 66 Washington (+0.49); No. 68 Texas State (+0.30).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.