UTSA · Week 6 analysis

Where the team stands

UTSA ranks No. 59 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +1.91 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 62; this update moves it +3 places and -0.04 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 5–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +2.492. Prior-season margin: +9.634.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0148; EPA/play net: -0.0105; success-rate net: +0.0423; explosiveness net: -0.2249. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 3 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

UTSA beat South Florida by 7 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -3.27; the result was +10.27 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Navy on 2026-10-18. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 486 versus 288; Net passing yards: 209 versus 177; Rushing yards: 277 versus 111; First downs: 25 versus 19

Completions–attempts: 22-32 versus 16-30; Rush attempts: 43 versus 31; Yards per pass: 6.5 versus 5.9; Yards per rush: 6.4 versus 3.6

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 24 points and recorded 288 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 2 versus 4; Third downs: 8-14 versus 3-11; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 2-2

Turnovers: 0 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 7-73 versus 5-35; Possession time: 32:25 versus 27:35

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 5–1. The expected final record is 8.5–3.5 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 58 Oklahoma State (+1.96); No. 60 North Carolina (+1.82).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.