UTSA · Week 5 analysis

Where the team stands

UTSA ranks No. 62 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +1.95 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 63; this update moves it +1 places and +1.76 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 5 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 4–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +3.030. Prior-season margin: +9.634.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0166; EPA/play net: +0.0130; success-rate net: +0.0278; explosiveness net: -0.1710. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

UTSA beat Rice by 2 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +7.92; the result was -5.92 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is South Florida on 2026-10-08. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 314 versus 232; Net passing yards: 148 versus 88; Rushing yards: 166 versus 144; First downs: 20 versus 13

Completions–attempts: 19-29 versus 6-14; Rush attempts: 43 versus 46; Yards per pass: 5.1 versus 6.3; Yards per rush: 3.9 versus 3.1

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 14 points and recorded 232 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 3 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 10 versus 6; Third downs: 6-16 versus 2-13; Fourth downs: 2-2 versus 4-6

Turnovers: 2 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 7-64 versus 7-45; Possession time: 32:06 versus 27:54

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 4–1. The expected final record is 7.9–4.1 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 61 Florida State (+2.20); No. 63 South Carolina (+1.83).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.