UAB · Week 5 analysis

Where the team stands

UAB ranks No. 116 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -10.10 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 123; this update moves it +7 places and +0.43 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 5 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 3–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -1.163. Prior-season margin: -6.373.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0187; EPA/play net: -0.0549; success-rate net: -0.0265; explosiveness net: +0.0636. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 3 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

UAB beat Samford by 19 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +26.92; the result was -7.92 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Memphis on 2026-10-10. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 400 versus 230; Net passing yards: 152 versus 140; Rushing yards: 248 versus 90; First downs: 23 versus 14

Completions–attempts: 9-19 versus 17-29; Rush attempts: 51 versus 25; Yards per pass: 8.0 versus 4.8; Yards per rush: 4.9 versus 3.6

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 14 points and recorded 230 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 6; Third downs: 7-15 versus 3-11; Fourth downs: 1-1 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 2 versus 3; Fumbles lost: 2 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 3; Penalties–yards: 4-34 versus 7-55; Possession time: 33:45 versus 26:15

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 3–2. The expected final record is 4.9–7.1 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 115 Sacramento State (-9.82); No. 117 Sam Houston (-10.21).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.