Syracuse · Week 2 analysis

Where the team stands

Syracuse ranks No. 105 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -6.69 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 92; this update moves it -13 places and -2.58 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 2 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +0.540. Prior-season margin: -4.752.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0045; EPA/play net: +0.0000; success-rate net: +0.0000; explosiveness net: +0.0000. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 0 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Syracuse lost to California by 3 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +8.50; the result was -11.50 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Pittsburgh on 2026-09-17. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 436 versus 249; Net passing yards: 318 versus 182; Rushing yards: 118 versus 67; First downs: 27 versus 16

Completions–attempts: 25-50 versus 21-34; Rush attempts: 36 versus 26; Yards per pass: 6.4 versus 5.4; Yards per rush: 3.3 versus 2.6

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 21 points and recorded 249 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 5; Third downs: 7-17 versus 3-12; Fourth downs: 1-1 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 3 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 3 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 15-132 versus 9-87; Possession time: 34:10 versus 25:50

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–1. The expected final record is 3.5–8.5 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 104 Wyoming (-6.61); No. 106 Southern Miss (-6.85).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.