Syracuse · Week 1 analysis

Where the team stands

Syracuse ranks No. 92 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -4.11 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 115; this update moves it +23 places and +6.39 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 1 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–0. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +3.392. Prior-season margin: -4.752.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0201; EPA/play net: +0.0000; success-rate net: +0.0000; explosiveness net: +0.0000. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 0 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Syracuse beat New Hampshire by 63 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +18.65; the result was +44.35 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is California on 2026-09-12. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 513 versus 159; Net passing yards: 275 versus 99; Rushing yards: 238 versus 60; First downs: 32 versus 12

Completions–attempts: 22-34 versus 15-26; Rush attempts: 43 versus 34; Yards per pass: 8.1 versus 3.8; Yards per rush: 5.5 versus 1.8

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 3 points and recorded 159 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 5 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 10 versus 6; Third downs: 8-12 versus 5-14; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 0 versus 3; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 2; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 12-125 versus 9-67; Possession time: 32:34 versus 27:26

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–0. The expected final record is 4.7–7.3 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 91 Wyoming (-4.08); No. 93 Rutgers (-4.13).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.