Southern Miss · Week 2 analysis

Where the team stands

Southern Miss ranks No. 106 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -6.85 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 103; this update moves it -3 places and -1.10 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 2 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +1.013. Prior-season margin: -0.484.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0069; EPA/play net: +0.0395; success-rate net: +0.0563; explosiveness net: -0.4001. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Southern Miss lost to Auburn by 35 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -12.41; the result was -22.59 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is UConn on 2026-09-19. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 221 versus 610; Net passing yards: 171 versus 267; Rushing yards: 50 versus 343; First downs: 12 versus 31

Completions–attempts: 22-33 versus 20-33; Rush attempts: 25 versus 51; Yards per pass: 5.2 versus 8.1; Yards per rush: 2.0 versus 6.7

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 43 points and recorded 610 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 4; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 6; Third downs: 5-13 versus 7-15; Fourth downs: 0-2 versus 4-5

Turnovers: 2 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 2 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 11-85 versus 10-73; Possession time: 27:11 versus 32:49

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–1. The expected final record is 4.8–7.2 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 105 Syracuse (-6.69); No. 107 Tulsa (-6.90).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.