South Florida · Week 5 analysis

Where the team stands

South Florida ranks No. 24 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +8.25 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 15; this update moves it -9 places and -3.19 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 5 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 4–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +3.225. Prior-season margin: +18.969.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0261; EPA/play net: +0.0635; success-rate net: +0.0503; explosiveness net: -0.0387. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

South Florida lost to Temple by 4 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +21.55; the result was -25.55 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is UTSA on 2026-10-08. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 319 versus 274; Net passing yards: 205 versus 92; Rushing yards: 114 versus 182; First downs: 17 versus 15

Completions–attempts: 17-32 versus 9-14; Rush attempts: 34 versus 36; Yards per pass: 6.4 versus 6.6; Yards per rush: 3.4 versus 5.1

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 17 points and recorded 274 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 4; Third downs: 7-15 versus 5-12; Fourth downs: 1-2 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 1 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 8-60 versus 3-15; Possession time: 30:55 versus 29:05

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 4–1. The expected final record is 9.1–2.9 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 23 Arizona (+8.48); No. 25 Memphis (+8.11).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.