South Florida · Week 3 analysis

Where the team stands

South Florida ranks No. 18 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +9.84 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 23; this update moves it +5 places and +0.95 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 3–0. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +3.172. Prior-season margin: +18.969.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0306; EPA/play net: +0.0000; success-rate net: +0.0000; explosiveness net: +0.0000. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 0 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

South Florida beat Delaware State by 42 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +46.28; the result was -4.28 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Bowling Green on 2026-09-26. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 611 versus 353; Net passing yards: 321 versus 250; Rushing yards: 290 versus 103; First downs: 33 versus 17

Completions–attempts: 25-35 versus 17-27; Rush attempts: 31 versus 31; Yards per pass: 9.2 versus 9.3; Yards per rush: 9.4 versus 3.3

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 17 points and recorded 353 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 11 versus 2; Third downs: 4-6 versus 3-12; Fourth downs: 0-0 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 1 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 4-35 versus 7-67; Possession time: 28:39 versus 31:21

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 3–0. The expected final record is 10.4–1.6 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 17 Tennessee (+10.17); No. 19 Iowa State (+9.81).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.