South Florida · Week 1 analysis

Where the team stands

South Florida ranks No. 26 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +6.53 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 16; this update moves it -10 places and -6.50 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 1 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–0. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -1.908. Prior-season margin: +18.969.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0237; EPA/play net: +0.0000; success-rate net: +0.0000; explosiveness net: +0.0000. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 0 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

South Florida beat Florida International by 10 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +23.82; the result was -13.82 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Army on 2026-09-12. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 208 versus 381; Net passing yards: 100 versus 301; Rushing yards: 108 versus 80; First downs: 14 versus 19

Completions–attempts: 11-18 versus 31-50; Rush attempts: 38 versus 25; Yards per pass: 5.6 versus 6.0; Yards per rush: 2.8 versus 3.2

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 9 points and recorded 381 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 7; Third downs: 5-13 versus 5-17; Fourth downs: 0-0 versus 3-7

Turnovers: 0 versus 3; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 4-30 versus 8-50; Possession time: 30:09 versus 29:51

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–0. The expected final record is 9.1–2.9 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 25 Washington (+7.12); No. 27 Arizona State (+6.26).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.