Sacramento State · No. 133 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Sacramento State ranks No. 133 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -16.98 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 125; this update moves it -8 places and -5.62 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–6. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -8.962. Prior-season margin: -0.650.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0420; EPA/play net: -0.2817; success-rate net: -0.0039; explosiveness net: -0.6161. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 5 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Sacramento State lost to Ohio by 41 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -7.45; the result was -33.55 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Ball State on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 267 versus 468; Net passing yards: 140 versus 203; Rushing yards: 127 versus 265; First downs: 13 versus 30

Completions–attempts: 15-26 versus 15-22; Rush attempts: 26 versus 42; Yards per pass: 5.4 versus 9.2; Yards per rush: 4.9 versus 6.3

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 48 points and recorded 468 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 1 versus 6; Third downs: 3-12 versus 5-10; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 1-1

Turnovers: 1 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 12-130 versus 6-55; Possession time: 26:49 versus 33:11

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–6. The expected final record is 2.7–9.3 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 132 Kent State (-16.87); No. 134 Bowling Green (-17.66).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.