Old Dominion · No. 106 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Old Dominion ranks No. 106 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -7.41 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 92; this update moves it -14 places and -2.82 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–5. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -3.631. Prior-season margin: +13.369.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0244; EPA/play net: -0.1987; success-rate net: -0.0877; explosiveness net: +0.0309. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Old Dominion lost to Georgia Southern by 8 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -0.35; the result was -7.65 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Louisiana Tech on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 266 versus 405; Net passing yards: 201 versus 272; Rushing yards: 65 versus 133; First downs: 16 versus 28

Completions–attempts: 15-24 versus 32-41; Rush attempts: 32 versus 35; Yards per pass: 8.4 versus 6.6; Yards per rush: 2.0 versus 3.8

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 23 points and recorded 405 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 4; Tackles for loss: 6 versus 9; Third downs: 3-10 versus 3-12; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 1-1

Turnovers: 2 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 2 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 12-100 versus 13-120; Possession time: 23:34 versus 36:26

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–5. The expected final record is 4.2–7.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 105 Tulane (-6.57); No. 107 San José State (-7.98).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.