Navy · Week 5 analysis

Where the team stands

Navy ranks No. 40 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +4.94 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 44; this update moves it +4 places and +0.75 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 4 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +3.393. Prior-season margin: +9.092.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0227; EPA/play net: +0.0432; success-rate net: +0.0598; explosiveness net: -0.0812. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 3 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Navy lost to Air Force by 5 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +3.78; the result was -8.78 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Tulsa on 2026-10-10. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 253 versus 270; Net passing yards: 143 versus 82; Rushing yards: 110 versus 188; First downs: 11 versus 17

Completions–attempts: 8-18 versus 6-12; Rush attempts: 30 versus 59; Yards per pass: 7.9 versus 6.8; Yards per rush: 3.7 versus 3.2

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 14 points and recorded 270 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 2; Third downs: 1-11 versus 9-18; Fourth downs: 1-1 versus 2-3

Turnovers: 1 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 2; Penalties–yards: 5-45 versus 2-20; Possession time: 23:59 versus 36:01

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–3. The expected final record is 5.6–6.4 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 39 Virginia (+4.96); No. 41 Mississippi State (+4.94).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.