Navy · Week 4 analysis

Where the team stands

Navy ranks No. 44 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +4.19 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 50; this update moves it +6 places and +1.53 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +2.665. Prior-season margin: +9.092.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0158; EPA/play net: +0.0244; success-rate net: +0.0636; explosiveness net: -0.1647. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Navy lost to UAB by 4 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +8.35; the result was -12.35 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Air Force on 2026-10-03. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 353 versus 290; Net passing yards: 104 versus 174; Rushing yards: 249 versus 116; First downs: 24 versus 15

Completions–attempts: 4-13 versus 13-20; Rush attempts: 58 versus 34; Yards per pass: 8.0 versus 8.7; Yards per rush: 4.3 versus 3.4

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 24 points and recorded 290 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 4 versus 6; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 10; Third downs: 7-15 versus 6-13; Fourth downs: 2-3 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 2 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 2 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 2-10 versus 4-40; Possession time: 34:22 versus 25:38

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–2. The expected final record is 6.4–5.6 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 43 Arizona State (+4.62); No. 45 East Carolina (+4.02).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.