Navy · Week 2 analysis

Where the team stands

Navy ranks No. 44 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +3.71 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 53; this update moves it +9 places and +0.59 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 2 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–1. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +1.500. Prior-season margin: +9.092.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0020; EPA/play net: -0.0331; success-rate net: +0.0333; explosiveness net: -0.1332. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Navy lost to Florida Atlantic by 8 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +9.57; the result was -17.57 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is UAB on 2026-09-25. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 393 versus 428; Net passing yards: 147 versus 386; Rushing yards: 246 versus 42; First downs: 18 versus 27

Completions–attempts: 9-23 versus 27-33; Rush attempts: 36 versus 44; Yards per pass: 6.4 versus 11.7; Yards per rush: 6.8 versus 1.0

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 38 points and recorded 428 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 3 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 9 versus 7; Third downs: 3-11 versus 8-14; Fourth downs: 2-3 versus 1-3

Turnovers: 2 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 9-70 versus 9-75; Possession time: 26:10 versus 33:50

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–1. The expected final record is 7.1–4.9 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 43 Memphis (+4.15); No. 45 Old Dominion (+3.62).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.