Memphis · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Memphis ranks No. 19 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +9.43 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 27; this update moves it +8 places and +1.71 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 7 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 5–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +6.892. Prior-season margin: +10.013.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0564; EPA/play net: +0.1778; success-rate net: +0.0982; explosiveness net: -0.1350. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 6 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Memphis lost to Tulane by 14 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +8.46; the result was -22.46 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is East Carolina on 2026-10-22. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 482 versus 325; Net passing yards: 306 versus 175; Rushing yards: 176 versus 150; First downs: 27 versus 12

Completions–attempts: 20-37 versus 12-22; Rush attempts: 44 versus 38; Yards per pass: 8.3 versus 8.0; Yards per rush: 4.0 versus 3.9

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 31 points and recorded 325 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 7; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 9; Third downs: 2-11 versus 4-16; Fourth downs: 0-2 versus 1-1

Turnovers: 6 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 3 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 3 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 3-12 versus 9-80; Possession time: 29:12 versus 30:48

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 5–2. The expected final record is 8.5–3.5 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 18 North Texas (+10.77); No. 20 Texas (+9.37).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.