Marshall · Week 6 analysis

Where the team stands

Marshall ranks No. 115 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -8.75 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 112; this update moves it -3 places and +0.14 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 3–3. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -4.141. Prior-season margin: +0.788.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0120; EPA/play net: -0.0461; success-rate net: -0.0058; explosiveness net: -0.0002. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Marshall lost to Coastal Carolina by 6 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +3.22; the result was -9.22 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is South Alabama on 2026-10-20. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 505 versus 308; Net passing yards: 284 versus 73; Rushing yards: 221 versus 235; First downs: 25 versus 16

Completions–attempts: 21-37 versus 8-18; Rush attempts: 41 versus 45; Yards per pass: 7.7 versus 4.1; Yards per rush: 5.4 versus 5.2

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 27 points and recorded 308 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 9 versus 8; Third downs: 9-15 versus 3-12; Fourth downs: 0-2 versus 1-1

Turnovers: 6 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 3 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 3 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 5-32 versus 2-20; Possession time: 29:09 versus 30:51

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 3–3. The expected final record is 5.7–6.3 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 114 Wyoming (-8.73); No. 116 South Alabama (-8.84).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.