Kansas State · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Kansas State ranks No. 46 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +4.35 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 46; this update moves it +0 places and +0.53 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 4–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +3.296. Prior-season margin: +9.667.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0361; EPA/play net: +0.0161; success-rate net: +0.0431; explosiveness net: -0.1485. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 5 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Kansas State beat Kansas by 11 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +1.92; the result was +9.08 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Arizona State on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 569 versus 319; Net passing yards: 209 versus 151; Rushing yards: 360 versus 168; First downs: 25 versus 18

Completions–attempts: 14-24 versus 12-26; Rush attempts: 50 versus 34; Yards per pass: 8.7 versus 5.8; Yards per rush: 7.2 versus 4.9

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 24 points and recorded 319 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 7 versus 3; Third downs: 6-13 versus 3-11; Fourth downs: 0-2 versus 1-3

Turnovers: 1 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 5-55 versus 7-66; Possession time: 35:26 versus 23:47

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 4–2. The expected final record is 6.9–5.1 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 45 Oregon State (+4.40); No. 47 Ohio (+4.32).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.