Kansas State · Week 3 analysis

Where the team stands

Kansas State ranks No. 29 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +5.83 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 25; this update moves it -4 places and -2.66 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 3–0. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +3.279. Prior-season margin: +9.667.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0276; EPA/play net: -0.0178; success-rate net: +0.0150; explosiveness net: -0.0555. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 2 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Kansas State beat Tulane by 11 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +12.54; the result was -1.54 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Cincinnati on 2026-09-26. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 428 versus 260; Net passing yards: 227 versus 165; Rushing yards: 201 versus 95; First downs: 20 versus 18

Completions–attempts: 21-28 versus 13-26; Rush attempts: 37 versus 33; Yards per pass: 8.1 versus 6.3; Yards per rush: 5.4 versus 2.9

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 20 points and recorded 260 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 6 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 12 versus 4; Third downs: 10-16 versus 7-15; Fourth downs: 1-1 versus 0-0

Turnovers: 0 versus 0; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 0; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 5-54 versus 5-20; Possession time: 33:41 versus 26:19

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 3–0. The expected final record is 8.2–3.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 28 Florida (+5.86); No. 30 Oklahoma (+5.77).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.