Kansas State · Week 2 analysis

Where the team stands

Kansas State ranks No. 25 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +8.49 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 22; this update moves it -3 places and +0.16 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 2 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–0. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +4.251. Prior-season margin: +9.667.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0465; EPA/play net: +0.0275; success-rate net: +0.0216; explosiveness net: -0.0128. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Kansas State beat Washington State by 27 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +6.25; the result was +20.75 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Tulane on 2026-09-19. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 487 versus 166; Net passing yards: 192 versus 65; Rushing yards: 295 versus 101; First downs: 24 versus 10

Completions–attempts: 22-34 versus 9-20; Rush attempts: 40 versus 30; Yards per pass: 5.6 versus 3.3; Yards per rush: 7.4 versus 3.4

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 7 points and recorded 166 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 4 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 8 versus 4; Third downs: 10-16 versus 2-12; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 0-1

Turnovers: 2 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 2 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 2-25 versus 3-25; Possession time: 34:20 versus 25:40

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–0. The expected final record is 8.6–3.4 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 24 NC State (+8.85); No. 26 Oklahoma (+7.73).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.