Kansas · No. 37 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Kansas ranks No. 37 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +4.89 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 39; this update moves it +2 places and +0.04 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–4. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +3.346. Prior-season margin: +7.389.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0552; EPA/play net: +0.1141; success-rate net: +0.0726; explosiveness net: -0.1864. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 6 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Kansas lost to Kansas State by 11 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -1.92; the result was -9.08 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Baylor on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 319 versus 569; Net passing yards: 151 versus 209; Rushing yards: 168 versus 360; First downs: 18 versus 25

Completions–attempts: 12-26 versus 14-24; Rush attempts: 34 versus 50; Yards per pass: 5.8 versus 8.7; Yards per rush: 4.9 versus 7.2

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 35 points and recorded 569 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 3 versus 7; Third downs: 3-11 versus 6-13; Fourth downs: 1-3 versus 0-2

Turnovers: 1 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 7-66 versus 5-55; Possession time: 23:47 versus 35:26

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–4. The expected final record is 5.2–6.8 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 36 Penn State (+5.34); No. 38 Oklahoma State (+4.85).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.