Duke · No. 56 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Duke ranks No. 56 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +3.42 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 36; this update moves it -20 places and -2.44 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 4–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +4.390. Prior-season margin: +10.742.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0264; EPA/play net: +0.0504; success-rate net: +0.0004; explosiveness net: +0.0569. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Duke lost to North Carolina by 4 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +7.01; the result was -11.01 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Virginia on 2026-10-23. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 373 versus 326; Net passing yards: 249 versus 191; Rushing yards: 124 versus 135; First downs: 19 versus 22

Completions–attempts: 24-41 versus 15-25; Rush attempts: 30 versus 39; Yards per pass: 6.1 versus 7.6; Yards per rush: 4.1 versus 3.5

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 24 points and recorded 326 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 2 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 5 versus 2; Third downs: 8-18 versus 4-12; Fourth downs: 2-3 versus 2-3

Turnovers: 1 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 2; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 8-67 versus 6-65; Possession time: 31:23 versus 28:37

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 4–2. The expected final record is 6.8–5.2 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 55 Kentucky (+3.42); No. 57 Virginia (+3.33).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.