Colorado State · No. 131 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

Colorado State ranks No. 131 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -15.66 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 130; this update moves it -1 places and -1.26 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 2–4. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -3.970. Prior-season margin: -5.761.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0464; EPA/play net: +0.0227; success-rate net: -0.0150; explosiveness net: +0.0455. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 3 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Colorado State lost to Texas State by 39 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -16.13; the result was -22.87 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is San Diego State on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 430 versus 716; Net passing yards: 282 versus 213; Rushing yards: 148 versus 503; First downs: 18 versus 31

Completions–attempts: 26-41 versus 14-19; Rush attempts: 31 versus 55; Yards per pass: 6.9 versus 11.2; Yards per rush: 4.8 versus 9.1

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 66 points and recorded 716 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 1; Tackles for loss: 2 versus 7; Third downs: 4-15 versus 5-9; Fourth downs: 2-5 versus 2-2

Turnovers: 0 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 6-77 versus 4-30; Possession time: 30:36 versus 29:24

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 2–4. The expected final record is 3.0–8.0 over 11 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 130 Central Michigan (-14.55); No. 132 Kent State (-16.87).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.